State secrets

The damning verdict on Manchester City must be backed up with decisive and impactful action by the Premier League

Eight of the ten League titles won by Manchester City have come since their takeover by the Abu Dhabi United Group in 2008 . At that rate, they might have expected to overtake the three clubs above them in the all-time table over the next couple of decades. This is not likely now. It’s even possible that some of those titles might be taken away from City, if not officially awarded to someone else.

In early 2023, the club were charged with over 100 alleged breaches of the Premier League’s financial regulations beginning in 2009, with 35 of the charges being for failing to co-operate with the investigation. The hearing held by an independent panel was concluded in December 2024 , after which there were regular rumours that a verdict was imminent. On September 29, the PL announced that all but one of the charges against City had been proven.

In preparing an appeal the club claim they have “irrefutable evidence” in their defence, despite having not seemingly produced any so far. If that is rejected, they can’t take the case to the Court of Arbitration for Sport (CAS) which overturned a two-year ban from European competition that UEFA had attempted to apply to City in 2020 for breaking Financial Fair Play rules. As any sanctions imposed by the PL could also be appealed, City might win more trophies before the case is resolved.

While other clubs have had periods of dominance in English football, City’s run of success looks different. It is summed up by two records they set, in being the only club to have won four championships in a row, between 2021 and 2024, and a domestic treble of League title and both major cups, achieved in 2018-19 . Like City in 2022-23 , Manchester United in the Alex Ferguson era also won the Champions League plus the title and FA Cup in a season but a domestic clean sweep eluded them, as it did for the similarly successful Liverpool team of the early 1980s.

That 6-0 defeat of Watford in 2019 was the biggest in an FA Cup final since Bury beat Derby by the same score in 1903 .

City may have lost two of their three subsequent cup finals but that thrashing of a fellow PL side in a treble season was a sign of an unparalleled strength in depth.

As with Chelsea after they were bought by Roman Abramovich, City’s rise tosuper-club status was widely acclaimed in the media, though some pundits have briskly changed their minds since the guilty verdict. The two nouveau riche clubs have been the only consistent challengers in the PL era to the aforementioned three that sit above City in the table of most won titles. In both cases, each has also served a broader political purpose, in laundering the public image of a close ally of Vladimir Putin and the ruling family in an autocratic Gulf emirate. The newly created Independent Football Regulator should be looking to stop football clubs being taken over by states from now on, or even requiring any such owners to sell up, if the UK government is prepared to risk the political fallout.

A forced restart at a lower level would filter out most of the global fanbase, leaving the club and its 61,470-capacity stadium to those who can recall trophyless decades and games against Macclesfield in the third tier

If City lose their appeal, a fine would seem pointless for owners who could afford to drag out the case indefinitely. A points deduction that stops City qualifying for next year’s Champions League would be a small inconvenience, as would taking off enough points to relegate them to the Championship. Expulsion, so they have to start again a few divisions lower down, would require support from EFL clubs, who will have mixed views on surrendering a promotion place for a few seasons in a row, even if a ban on incoming transfers was to slow City’s progress.

Then there is the reported threat of collective legal action by clubs who lost out on trophies and income while the rules were being broken. This prospect will terrify the PL though it could be a trade-off, with the clubs’ case dropped if City agree not to challenge their punishment.

There might even be a bright side for some supporters. A forced restart at a lower level would filter out most of the global fanbase, leaving the club and its 61,470-capacity stadium to those who can recall trophyless decades and games against Macclesfield in the third tier.

Since its creation, the PL has prioritised the interests of its wealthiest members. It could now take decisive action against a club that flouted some of the few rules that reined them in. If this chance is squandered there may not be another.